Project ULTIMA Rates & Odds

How the modifiers work

Friend boosts only count up to 5 friends in the same server.
Item-drop boost: +10% per friend, capped at +50% total.
Form boost: +4% per friend, capped at +20% total.
Shiny boost: +6% per friend, capped at +30% total.
Shiny Charm overrides the other shiny boosts.
Reskin Charm halves the form denominators and ignores friend-based form boosts while active.
Item Magnet Charm forces the item-drop multiplier to 2x instead of using friend-based drop boosts.

Base shiny: 1/100.
Best friend-only shiny: about 1/76.
Shiny Charm: 1/50.
Shiny VIP: effectively 1/10.
Secret Shiny: only rolls on wild shiny encounters and is 1/16 of a shiny.
Base wild Secret Shiny: 1/1600.
Best friend-only wild Secret Shiny: about 1/1216.
With Shiny Charm: 1/800 wild.
With Shiny VIP: 1/160 wild.

Normal-form roll with no perks: 1/300.
Doodle roll with no perks: 1/400.
Mewtwo Shadow Realm with no perks: 1/10000.
With either a form pass or the special-data “Form Chance” perk: normal 1/5, Doodle 1/50, Shadow Realm 1/5000.
With both the pass and the special-data perk: normal 1/3, Doodle 1/30, Shadow Realm 1/3000.
Best friend-only improvement: those denominators divide by up to 1.2x.
With Reskin Charm active: the form denominators are halved instead of using the friend form boost.

Animated aura: 1/500.
First tint / color-change roll: usually 1/50.
If an animated aura rolled first: the first tint roll becomes 1/5.
Additional tint layers: 1/20, then 1/30, then 1/40, and so on while each previous layer succeeds.
At least one tint overall: about 2.036%, or roughly 1 in 49.
Alpha: there is no random Alpha chance in this script. Alpha only appears when another system explicitly flags the encounter.

Important: the function returns on the first successful drop. The check order is Berry → Megastone → Z-Crystal → Shinyfier → Skinifier → Tintifier → Aurafier → Shinyfier+ → Skinifier+ → Shiny Charm → Reskin Charm → Item Magnet Charm → Riches Charm. That means later drops are slightly rarer in practice than the raw 1/X roll listed here.
Berries: 1/50 base, about 1/33 with max friend boost, or 1/25 with Item Magnet Charm.
Megastones: 1/80 fixed.
Z-Crystals: 1/100 fixed.
Shinyfier: 1/3000 base, about 1/2000 with max friend boost, or 1/1500 with Item Magnet Charm.
Skinifier: 1/5000 base, about 1/3333 with max friend boost, or 1/2500 with Item Magnet Charm.
Tintifier: 1/6000 base, about 1/4000 with max friend boost, or 1/3000 with Item Magnet Charm.
Aurafier: 1/7000 base, about 1/4666 with max friend boost, or 1/3500 with Item Magnet Charm.
Shinyfier+: 1/8000 base, about 1/5333 with max friend boost, or 1/4000 with Item Magnet Charm.
Skinifier+: 1/8000 base, about 1/5333 with max friend boost, or 1/4000 with Item Magnet Charm.
Shiny Charm, Reskin Charm, Item Magnet Charm, Riches Charm: each is currently 1/5000 base, about 1/3333 with max friend boost, or 1/2500 with Item Magnet Charm.

Zombies cannot randomly shiny in this script.
Secret Shiny only applies to wild encounters generated in the OppPokemon folder with no trainer.
There is a special forced-shiny Gyarados case when the player is near the LanceRage setup.
Wild Alpha Pokémon get guaranteed 3x31 IVs when they are explicitly flagged as Alpha.
Some comment text in the Lua file is outdated. For example, the code comments say some charm drops are 1/8000, but the actual denominator in the current script is 1/5000.